Any technology from before the time of your grandparents, and often parents, is usually perceived to be "not fancy". Because then those elders can't tell you in your childhood what life was like before that technology. So in your lived experience that technology was always there. Reading history later on, doesn't change your emotional experiences.
I guess if we expand it worldwide that makes sense, though in a discussion about 96GB of RAM it feels like an apples to oranges comparison to bring in the entirety of the world. That is including a whole lot of people who probably couldn't afford the RAM or a car even if they saved most of their income for a decade.
My guess. Total energy consumption in 2024 was x. Total energy consumption in 2025 was x + y. For example, solar PV was installed and led to increased electricity consumption. Or more oil was extracted and used to drive cars around more.
They broke down y into all these different energy sources and made a pie chart. So roughly 25% of y was solar PV.
I'm still confused by this chart. Nuclear is shown to be a bit more than half the addition of wind power but if you look at the bar chart for electricity, it's suddenly only a small fraction. How does that fit together?
Isn't it still flawed? If a coal plant gets switched off, that needs to be replaced but this graph excludes it. Unless you do it properly rata, but then the graph is essentially showing all generating capacity that's been added?
The parent used the example of 2024s usage being X and 2025s being x+y.
So this shows us what y is.
But the precise mix that supplied X no longer exists, due to closures, so something must have back filled that x. So is that pro rata from these figures?
Yes I understand this isn't strictly capacity, but in practical terms, wind turbines and solar panels have been installed to allow this increase.
People in the year 1500 could pretty reliably tell you that a rock would fall down if you released it from a height. People would also tell you that if you threw it up and away, it would go up in an arc and fall down.
The innovation that Newtown and friends brought about was they made quantitative predictions about the rate at which the rock would fall down, or the arc it would follow - both to pretty high level of accuracy.
The point is that, of course, building more houses has a tendency to reduce rents. The question is whether reduction is -0.1% or -10% or there is an increase of +5% because some other factor was more dominant. It would be very hard for policy makers to argue against building more housing, if there was a quantitative model that predicted exact numbers for how much rent fell down given all relevant factors, and this model had been validated over and over again by prediction (not retrodiction). Rather than "rock fall down if you drop it" model that everyone keeps quoting.
We don't need quantitative models if we want the rock to fall. It might be nice to have them, but one of the great things about market economies is that we don't micromanage according to overly complex estimates, and get better results.
Zoning and homeowners are holding on to the rock with a death grip, all while saying "the rock won't fall if we let go, that's fake science, it's far more nuanced you see" as they lie through their teeth to make big profits and immiserate those who don't own land.
The quantitative model will tell you whether building housing of type A of quantity B results in more of a decrease in rent than building housing of type C of quantity D. Then you choose the policy that results in the desired decrease in rent. Otherwise, you risk wasting time in pursuing a policy that only results in a 0.1% decrease.
You do have a strong point, in that homeowners are eager to approve plans that allow for ADUs but disallow anything slightly larger. Homeowners already have housing, don't often need more of it, and like having complete control so they approve plans that allow ADUS with the knowledge that it won't account for any significant new housing, and new housing is directly against homeowners' financial interests.
But in reality, the political choice of "let's build A, or B, or C" doesn't exist to maximize the effect of housing. People overly focus on highly regulating to a specific type of housing to prevent anything from getting built.
Let people decide for their own what type of housing they want, and all of a sudden we'd have enough of it. That's the biggest fear of landlords and homeowners.
Most rent payers aren't concerned with the exact function that will describe the shape of the curve for decline in cost of rent.
They are mostly interested in "rent go down", or at least "rent not go up".
That said, there are people who have studied this. You don't need Newtonian level math to calculate elasticity. Hell, we can look at how rents rise in a constrained market and make a pretty good guess what would happen if supply increases.
There are dozens of papers that have these numbers when you search the academic databases for "rent elasticity"
Lots of places in the world have legally mandated percentage by which rent can increase for a unit per year. It might be 2% or 3%, but it is a fixed number that is fought over politically before being decided. That is the function that you are claiming rent payers don't care about. But they do, as evidenced by elected officials enforcing the number they think will get them the most votes.
That’s completely distinct from increased supply driving down rents through market mechanisms. That process is completely independent of supply and demand in open markets.
People don’t give two shits about politically determined rent caps if rents are dropping through supply increases. I’ve lived in those places you describe and that mechanism creates market distortions that paradoxically drive rent way above the market clearing price for new entrants. In any case, none of those places place restrictions on lowering rent due to competitive pressure.
Notably, though, a significant fraction of people seem to believe that building more housing will cause rents to increase. So it seems like it is still important to point to data suggesting the opposite.
Housing is a unique market, because every single product in it is unique, and prices and rents can vary quite a bit.
In a city I used to live, the city decided to revitalize a section of downtown by bringing down some old small buildings and replacing them with high rises. The resultant effect was a bloom in shops and restaurants in the area. That meant that 1km^2 area became a lot more attractive, landlords jacked up rents, and existing tenants in the other buildings in the area had to move out for people who were willing to pay 2x the rent. Of course rents probably went down elsewhere in the city to compensate.
You will never get this sort of prediction from simply supply and demand. You need to build quantitative and holistic models that make predictions based on a range of factors. Then use those to make policy.
I don't think the predominant factor causing pollies to shy away from increasing housing supply is a lack of understanding that supply decreases prices, it's a lack of political will to decrease prices.
It's harder than you think to argue for a house price decrease when it's the singular asset that most older adults have most of their wealth tied up in.
In a city like San Francisco, relative to the status quo ante easier development is more likely to result in slower growth in home prices, not a reduction in home prices.
But that's not the reason most San Franciscans oppose development. The primary reasons are 1) they're convinced more development will raise prices, 2) they believe affordability must be mandated through price controls or subsidies (e.g. developers dedicating X% of units for below market prices), 3) they insist on bike shedding every development proposal to death, 4) they're convinced private development is inherently inequitable (only "luxury" housing is built).
Pretty much the only group of people in the city worried about housing stock increases reducing prices are developers trying to sell-off new units. But developers are repeat players, and they're generally not the ones lending support to development hurdles. Though, there is (was?) at least one long-time developer who specializes in building "affordable" housing--mostly at public expense, of course--who did aggressively lobby for development hurdles, but carefully crafted so he and only he could easily get around them.
> It's harder than you think to argue for a house price decrease when it's the singular asset that most older adults have most of their wealth tied up in.
The only thing they can exchange it for is another house or an alternate form of housing. Because you have to live somewhere.
But what I have seen is worries about social class and sharing space with new neighbors who act like they're from the next rung down on the ladder. Which isn't all that different from the usual objection to short-term rentals.
Yes, but many people use geographic arbitrage to exchange their house in a supply constrained area for a house elsewhere and enough money to never have to work again. Notably, the more you can work to restrict supply once you already are in the market, the sooner you can move to Costa Rica.
If I could lobby my government to restrict other people’s use of their property in a way that would give me enough money to create a generational wealth in exchange for moving somewhere with cheaper houses, I would be very tempted to be that asshole.
> It would be very hard for policy makers to argue against building more housing, if there was a quantitative model that predicted exact numbers for how much rent fell down given all relevant factors, and this model had been validated over and over again by prediction (not retrodiction).
Policy makers are experts at completely ignoring objective facts, why would this be different?
The MNT Reform classic discussed here was designed 6 years ago, but there’s nothing preventing an updated motherboard with better port selection from being created.
The MNT Reform Next that’s scheduled to be fulfilled this year has a much more modern port layout:
Why not? It's only an adapter away if you have something thst needs to connect to a usb-c female host port. And if you need more ports, which seems likely, you can get a usb hub which has ports of your preference.
Thunderbird currently runs entirely on donations, even though they have paid products in the pipeline.
I think a piece of software running on donations is not running off "charity". It's just a business model to not charge every user. Similar to how Twitch streamers operate, or my local theater group.
Thanks, that's helpful. This says about ~70% of the money was paid to employees, ~10% infra costs, the other ~20% various other fees and smaller expenses.
It would be interesting to have a breakdown of what part of the Thunderbird team is working on Thunderbird, Thunderbolt, or other forms of thunder.
Economic behavior is inherently game theoretic - agents take various actions and get some positive/negative reward as a result. Whether an agent's reward is positive or negative and of what magnitude, depends on the strategies employed by all agents. If some agents adopt new strategies, the reward calculus for everyone involved can completely change [1].
Over the past few centuries, countless new economic structures and strategies have been discovered and practiced. The rewards for the same action today and in the past can be completely different due to this.
So to me, if someone claimed more than a few decades ago that certain economic strategies and structures are good or bad, its simply not worth listening to them, unless someone reconfirms that the old finding still holds with the latest range of strategies. In that case, the credit and citation goes to that new someone, not the ghosts of the past.
Game theory is just math. As with any math, the calculations can all work out, but that says nothing of how it reflects nature. All you can say is that if the axioms are all true, then this is the necessary outcome. Look for string theory as a cautionary tale here.
Game theory assumes rational systems. But we have over 6 decades of behavior science which contradicts that fundamental assumption. Economic behavior is not necessarily rational, and subsequently it is not inherently game theoretic. You will find plenty of dogmatic, idealistic, superstitious, counter productive, etc. behaviors in an economy. You need psychology, and not just math, to describe the economics which happens in the real world.
Game theory definitely does not require rational agents. Game theory says there are agents with certain specified strategies. Whether a strategy is rational from the underlying theory of value the agent adopts is completely separate matter. For example, its very common to study agents who always do one action no matter what others do or what the reward function is. Hard to call such actors rational, but that does not stop as from studying them.
When I said rational I meant it in this way. That rational agents will perform in a way in which maximizes their utility (or reward function). In psychology we call this theory homo economicus[1]. Regardless of theories of value, perceived rewards, and utilities, human beings have biases, prejudice, superstition, dogma, etc. etc. In real economies these non-strategic behaviors are consistently observed. This is why I say that economics are not just game theories, they are psychology, sociology, religion, as much as they are zero-sum games between actors.
> Hard to call such actors rational, but that does not stop as from studying them.
This is precisely why I object to your first post. “Shut up and do the math” has not done the wonders which string theorists had hoped. Game theory is a perfectly fine way to mathematics, and to study certain strategies, but it tells us nothing about the nature of economies in the real world.
> if someone claimed more than a few decades ago that certain economic strategies and structures are good or bad
As you point out, it is all game theory.
But things that arrange for the game to be more beneficial to everyone, that align our interests more, deserve to be called "good", regardless of their inability to universally do so.
The latter would be an impossible bar for anything.
Where I find things frustrating, is when someone thinks because something is "good", it somehow becomes "enough". (Think, capitalized versions of different economic schools of thought.)
I got 0.0039. Peripheral vision helps a lot. My eyes, at least, are very differently sensitive to different colors. It's really difficult to discriminate with bright and pink like colors. Easier with darker colors.
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